Betting on sports is a popular pastime that allows fans to engage more deeply with their favorite sports and teams. While many bettors are content to place simple wagers like betting the spread or moneyline, more serious bettors look to employ advanced strategies to try to gain an edge.
Advanced betting requires dedication, research, and discipline, but can provide a more intellectually stimulating experience and potentially lead to greater profits.
Proper implementation of these advanced tactics requires an in-depth understanding of sports betting markets and lines. The strategies covered should only be attempted by experienced bettors who are prepared to put in the necessary time and effort. While risky, advanced betting techniques provide an opportunity to take your sports betting to the next level.
This guide will explore some of the most popular advanced betting strategies used by knowledgeable sports bettors. We will look at critical concepts like bankroll management, line shopping, steam chasing, middling, arbitrage, and hedging.
Managing Your Bankroll
Proper bankroll management is crucial for any serious sports bettor. Many novices make the mistake of betting too much of their available funds on each wager. This aggressive approach can quickly wipe out a bankroll with just a few losses.
To manage your bankroll effectively, start by calculating your ideal bankroll size. The general recommendation is to have a bankroll of at least 100 times your average bet size. For example, if you typically bet $10 per game, then your minimum bankroll should be $1,000. This allows you to endure a bad losing streak without going broke.
Some advantages of maintaining a sufficiently large bankroll include:
- Staying power – A large bankroll prevents you from going bust after a string of losses. This allows you to stick to your system and methodology without having to reduce bet sizes or quit entirely when you hit a rough patch.
- Reduce anxiety and tilt – With a big bankroll cushion, you can bet freely without sweating over each wager. This prevents emotional decision making and allows you to focus clearly.
- Take better lines – You can shop for the best lines and pounce on opportune middle opportunities when you have plenty of capital to work with. This flexibility leads to better risk-adjusted returns.
Proper bankroll management takes discipline, but it’s a must for any bettor who wants to wager seriously over the long-term. Make sure you have enough funds so that no single bet or losing streak can knock you out completely. With a sufficient bankroll, you gain staying power and the freedom to bet optimally.
Line Shopping
Line shopping refers to comparing the odds and lines across multiple sportsbooks to find the best value. This strategy takes some extra effort but can yield significant edge for bettors. The key is that different sportsbooks will post slightly different odds and lines for the same games. These differences stem from how each book adjusts their lines based on their customer betting patterns and liabilities.
For example, Book A may have the favorite as a -7 point spread while Book B has -6.5 points for the same game. A savvy bettor would want to place their wager with Book B to get the extra half point of value. While half a point may seem insignificant, it makes a big difference in covering the spread.
Some key tips for effective line shopping:
- Have accounts at a variety of reputable sportsbooks. The more options you have, the better price you can find.
- Make sure to factor in vig/juice when comparing odds. One book may offer better spread but higher juice.
- Be aware of key numbers like 3, 7, 10. The difference between -3 and -3.5 is noteworthy.
- Follow line movements across books. If a line starts moving one direction, there could be value on the other side.
- Use odds comparison sites to efficiently scan multiple sportsbooks at once. But always place bets directly with the sportsbooks.
- Be quick to jump on advantageous lines before they move. Soft lines don’t last long.
The extra minutes it takes to line shop effectively is time well spent. It’s one of the easiest ways to gain an edge over the books.
Fading the Public
Fading the public refers to betting against the consensus or majority opinion of other bettors. Sportsbooks aim to balance betting action on both sides of a wager, so they adjust betting lines and spreads to attract bets to the less popular side. When most casual bettors flock to one side, referred to as the “public side”, more experienced bettors may purposely bet the other side.
The logic behind this strategy is that the public often makes emotional bets and overvalues certain teams, like popular favorites or their favorite hometown team. The public tends to bet favorites, overs, and high-scoring teams. By fading the public, contrarian bettors aim to capitalize on public bias and find value on the unpopular side.
To effectively fade the public, you’ll need to track betting percentages across multiple sportsbooks to identify which side is receiving the majority of wagers. Betting against lopsided public action works best when betting against bad teams that are public favorites, or on good teams that are underdogs. Situational spots like potential letdown games or lookahead spots for favorites are also good opportunities.
While fading the public can be profitable, it’s not advisable to automatically bet against the public in every situation. You still need to handicap each game individually and look for value. Use public betting trends as just one factor in your overall analysis. Blindly fading the public without doing your homework is not a winning long-term strategy.
Steam Chasing
Steam chasing involves following line movement and betting on steam moves. This is when the betting line for a game moves rapidly in one direction, indicating that sharp bettors are pounding one side of the wager.
For example, you notice the point spread for an NFL game open at -3.5 points but it quickly moves to -7 points. The rapid line movement signals that sharp bettors have bet heavily on the favorite, driving the line up. As a steam chaser, you would want to jump on the favorite at -7 while you still can.
The logic behind steam chasing is that sharp bettors often have inside information or a strong edge, so when they bet big on one side it’s wise to follow their lead. The betting line is moving to attract more bets on the underdog and balance the action. But steam chasers use line movements to identify which side the pros are on.
Some tips for effective steam chasing:
- Follow line movements at multiple sportsbooks to verify the steam. Make sure the line is moving across the betting market and not just at one book.
- Act quickly before the line moves further against you. The idea is to hop on board the steam train before it leaves the station.
- Be selective and only bet steam moves of 1-2 points in NFL/NBA or 5-10 points in college football. Anything less is likely just normal line adjustments.
- Focus on betting steam in the NFL and NBA where sharp money is most prevalent. College football steam can be profitable but riskier.
Steam chasing is an advanced strategy that requires closely tracking line movements, experience identifying true steam moves, and the discipline to pounce on the right opportunities. Used correctly, it can give you a valuable edge by aligning your bets with the sharps.
Middling
Middling is a sports betting strategy that involves placing bets on both sides of a game at different points in time. This approach seeks to exploit movements in betting lines, aiming to create a situation where both bets could potentially win, guaranteeing a profit, or minimizing potential losses.
Here’s a more detailed breakdown of how middling works and why it can be an effective betting strategy:
Understanding Betting Lines
Betting lines, or odds, can change between the time they are first released and the start of the event. These changes can be due to various factors such as injuries, weather conditions, or significant amounts of money being wagered on one side of the bet. Savvy bettors monitor these changes to find opportunities for middling.
How Middling Works
1. Initial Bet: The bettor places an initial bet on one side of a game at a certain point spread. For example, betting on Team A to cover a -4.5 point spread.
2. Line Movement: If the line moves significantly, the bettor then places a second bet on the opposite side of the original bet but with the new line. For example, if the spread shifts and Team B is now at +6.5, the bettor would then bet on Team B.
3. The Middle: The goal is to have the final score land in the “middle” of the two bets. In the above scenario, if the final score has Team A winning by 5 or 6 points, both of your bets would win.
Advantages of Middling
- High Reward Potential: If the final score lands in the middle, the bettor can win both bets, leading to a significant payout.
- Risk Management: Even if the score doesn’t land in the middle, the bettor might win one bet and lose the other, which can offset losses depending on the odds and stakes.
Considerations
- Requires Vigilance: Successful middling requires constant monitoring of betting lines and quick action when opportunities arise.
- Cost of Vig: Every bet placed involves a commission or vig, which can eat into profits if not managed properly.
- Market Limitations: Not all sports or games will see significant line movements, limiting middling opportunities.
Middling is particularly popular among experienced sports bettors who can predict or react to line movements efficiently. It requires a good understanding of how odds are set and how they move, making it more suited for serious enthusiasts or professional bettors.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting, or “arb betting,” is a clever way to bet on sports where you cover all possible outcomes of an event using different betting sites. The trick here is to capitalize on the different odds offered by various bookmakers.
For example, if one bookmaker thinks a team is likely to win and offers low odds, and another offers high odds for them to lose, you can bet on both outcomes. With the right calculations, you secure a profit regardless of who actually wins.
This strategy demands speed and precision. Odds can shift quickly as more bets come in, so you need to act fast to catch the best odds before they disappear. While each profit might be small, these winnings can accumulate into a sizable amount over time if you consistently find and exploit these opportunities.
However, be cautious—some bookmakers might restrict or close accounts if they notice you’re frequently winning through arbitrage betting. This approach is ideal for those who want a more thoughtful and less risky way to bet, treating sports betting almost like a financial investment.
Hedging
Hedging in betting is like an insurance policy for your bets. It’s used to lessen risk and guarantee some profit or minimize losses, no matter how the event turns out. For example, if you initially bet on a team to win a championship and they look likely to succeed, you might place a counter bet on another team. This way, if your original bet fails, the second bet can help cover the losses.
This strategy needs careful planning on when and how much to hedge to maximize safety or profit. Hedging is great for bettors who prefer to play it safe, ensuring they always walk away with some earnings or at least fewer losses. It’s a cautious way to approach betting, treating it more like an investment where steady gains are the goal.
In conclusion, betting smarter is all about using the right strategies and staying informed.
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