Group D in UEFA’s 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification is arguably the group of death, and this opening encounter between Ukraine and France is set to deliver fireworks. Both sides enter this match with strong recent form, and with so much at stake, football fans in Kenya and around the world will be glued to their screens.
Ukraine, ranked 26th by FIFA, has often been unlucky in previous qualification campaigns, with five of its six failed bids ending in play-off heartbreak. With the expanded 2026 World Cup allowing 16 European teams instead of 13, Serhiy Rebrov’s men have an improved chance of making a long-awaited return to the finals. Having lost just twice in their last eight matches (W4, D2), confidence is high in the Ukrainian camp.
France, on the other hand, is a seasoned campaigner on the world stage. With seven consecutive World Cup qualifications and four finals appearances, Didier Deschamps’ Les Bleus will expect to dominate Group D. They’ve lost just once in their last 21 WCQ group games (W14, D6). Still, with two defeats already in 2025 against top-ten nations, some cracks may just be appearing.
Head-to-Head Record
Ukraine’s biggest heartbreak came against France in the 2014 WCQ play-offs, where they won the first leg 2-0 but lost 3-0 in the return, crashing out 3-2 on aggregate. That remains Ukraine’s only win in 12 meetings (D5, L6) against France, highlighting just how tough this fixture usually is for them.
Hot Stats and Betting Trends
- Eight of Ukraine’s last 10 matches have seen both teams score (BTTS).
- Over 2.5 goals were scored in each of Ukraine’s last seven defeats.
- France’s half-time result matched the full-time result in 5 of their last six games.
- The first half has been higher scoring than the second in 4 of France’s last six away fixtures.
These stats suggest we’re in for goals and drama right from the start.
Key Players to Watch
- Artem Dovbyk (Ukraine): A striker who grows into the game, with 9 of his 11 international goals coming after half-time. Expect him to be more dangerous as the match wears on.
- Kylian Mbappé (France): France’s superstar forward, who has scored his last three goals for Les Bleus away from home, will look to exploit Ukraine’s defensive frailties.
Missing Players
- France: William Saliba and Rayan Cherki are late withdrawals due to injury.
- Ukraine: Maksym Talovierov and Mykola Mykhaylenko will miss out, further weakening their depth.
Match Prediction
This is a battle between Ukraine’s hunger and France’s pedigree. While Ukraine is strong at home and challenging to break down, France’s firepower and depth across the squad make them favourites.
Prediction:
- France to win 2-0 or 3-1.
- Both teams to score (BTTS) is a strong possibility.
- Backing France to win by 2+ goals provides extra value, given that 5 of their last six victories have come by that margin.
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Final Word
Ukraine will be desperate to prove they can compete with Europe’s elite, but France’s experience and quality in big matches should see them through comfortably. Expect goals, high tempo, and a showcase of world-class talent.
France to win, but Ukraine won’t go down without a fight.
