Bayer Leverkusen head into their final UEFA Champions League (UCL) league-phase fixture knowing that qualification is firmly within reach. A point against already-eliminated Villarreal could be enough, but three points would remove all doubt and secure a knockout round play-off spot without relying on other results.
With everything on the line, expect a focused and purposeful performance from the German side.
Match News and Current Form
Bayer Leverkusen began 2026 worryingly, suffering three consecutive defeats across domestic and European competitions. However, a timely Bundesliga win at the weekend restored belief and kept them in the top-four race.
Their UCL campaign has been less convincing, with a 2-0 defeat on the previous matchday leaving them unable to qualify directly for the last 16. Only a knockout round play-off is now possible, and victory here guarantees that outcome. Home form in Europe remains a concern, though, as Leverkusen are winless in their last four UCL home matches (D2, L2).
For Villarreal, this Champions League campaign has been one to forget. Villarreal have picked up just one point from seven games (D1, L6) and are already eliminated. That European struggle contrasts sharply with their strong La Liga position, but recent form suggests confidence is dipping, with three straight competitive defeats heading into this clash.
Head-to-Head History
Interestingly, Villarreal have never lost to Leverkusen in major European competition (W3, D1). However, their record away to German opposition is far less impressive, failing to win any of their last five such matches (D3, L2).
That trend, combined with their poor current UCL form, tilts the balance firmly in Leverkusen’s favour.
Hot Stats and Key Trends
- Leverkusen have lost just one of their last eight European home games against Spanish sides.
- 7 of Leverkusen’s 10 UCL goals this season have been scored after half-time.
- Villarreal have conceded 10 of their 15 UCL goals after the break.
- Villarreal have collected a joint competition-high 19 yellow cards, highlighting discipline issues.
These numbers point towards a stronger Leverkusen finish, especially in the second half.
Key Players to Watch
Aleix García could be pivotal for Leverkusen. The midfielder started his career at Villarreal and has already scored all his goals this season in cup competitions. His familiarity with the opponent adds extra intrigue.
For Villarreal, Tani Oluwaseyi has scored in the last two UCL rounds and will be eager to make history by scoring in three consecutive Champions League matches for the club.
Team News and Absentees
Leverkusen will be without Nathan Tella, among others, which will slightly limit their attacking depth. Villarreal suffered a setback at the weekend with Juan Foyth picking up an injury, weakening their defensive options.
Betting Analysis and Prediction
Villarreal’s lack of motivation, poor European away record, and defensive vulnerability after half-time make them difficult to trust. Leverkusen, despite their home struggles, have far more at stake and the quality to take control when it matters most.
Prediction:
- Bayer Leverkusen to Win
- Leverkusen to Score in the Second Half
- Under 4.5 Total Goals (value pick)
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