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Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction – Carabao Cup Semi-Final (1st Leg)

By their high standards, Chelsea and Arsenal have gone too long without domestic silverware. That makes this Carabao Cup semi-final first leg at Stamford Bridge a massive occasion for both London rivals, with momentum, pride, and a place in the final on the line.

Match News and Current Form

Chelsea enter this clash under new leadership, with Liam Rosenior taking charge of his first home game. His reign began in style with a commanding 5-1 FA Cup win over Charlton, and lifting a trophy would instantly win over the Stamford Bridge faithful. The Blues have not won a domestic trophy since the 2017/18 season, while their last Carabao Cup success dates back to 2014/15.

However, home form is a concern. Chelsea have managed just one win in their last four matches at Stamford Bridge, conceding regularly and often needing second-half recoveries to stay competitive.

Arsenal, on the other hand, arrive in ruthless form. Mikel Arteta’s side is on a nine-match unbeaten run across all competitions (W8, D1). They brushed aside Portsmouth in the FA Cup and have won four straight away games, scoring 11 goals in the process. Still, the Gunners’ League Cup history is less convincing, with just two titles, the last coming way back in 1993.

Head-to-Head History

This fixture has tilted Arsenal’s way in recent years. The Gunners are unbeaten in the last eight meetings (W5, D3) and have not lost at Stamford Bridge since 2018. That said, Chelsea have traditionally fared well against Arsenal in the League Cup, losing only once in their last six encounters in this competition.

Hot Stats and Trends

  • Seven of Chelsea’s last nine home matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
  • Six of Chelsea’s last seven goals were scored after half-time.
  • Arsenal have kept just one clean sheet in their last six domestic away games.
  • Arsenal’s last seven away goals against Chelsea all came in the second half.

These trends strongly suggest goals, especially after the break.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction – Carabao Cup Semi-Final (1st Leg)
Photo courtesy

Key Players and Team News

Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández has been influential recently, with three goals and one assist in his last five appearances. He has also picked up several bookings, making his discipline a factor to watch.

For Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli arrives in confidence after scoring a hat-trick in the FA Cup. Notably, both of his goals against Chelsea have come at Stamford Bridge.

Marc Cucurella returns from suspension for Chelsea, while Reece James and Cole Palmer remain doubtful. Arsenal are monitoring the fitness of Piero Hincapié and Riccardo Calafiori ahead of kick-off.

Betting Analysis and Prediction

Arsenal’s consistency, confidence, and strong recent record against Chelsea give them a clear edge. While Stamford Bridge can still be a tricky venue, the Gunners look well-equipped to avoid defeat and take a positive result back to the Emirates.

Best Bet: Draw or Arsenal (Double Chance)
A tight, high-intensity first leg is expected, with goals likely in the second half.

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