For Ireland, the path to the FIFA World Cup is still alive but fragile. Sitting third in Group F with just four points from as many games, they trail Hungary by one point and must pick up results in their remaining fixtures to keep qualification hopes alive. A home tie against Portugal offers a golden (if daunting) opportunity to maintain control of their fate.
Portugal, ranked fifth by FIFA, can wrap up qualification with a win here — that would be their seventh consecutive World Cup finals appearance.
Current form and team mood
Ireland return to Dublin on the back of an encouraging five-match unbeaten home run in internationals (W3, D2) — showing they defend reasonably well on home soil. Their last visit from a top-five side, though, ended in defeat (2-0 vs England).
Portugal arrived riding a long run of consistency, having suffered only one defeat in their last 16 games (W9, D6) after 90 minutes. Notably, in their two away qualifiers this campaign, they scored eight goals. Their momentum and firepower mark them as firm favourites.
Head-to-Head snapshot
In 17 meetings between these two nations, Portugal holds the upper hand (10 wins, three draws, four losses). However — and this is key — Ireland has never lost a home qualifier against Portugal for a major tournament (W1, D2). While Portugal is the form team, Ireland has a credible record in this very scenario.
Key stats and intriguing angles
- None of Ireland’s eight internationals in 2025 have finished with more than a one-goal margin.
- Seven of the nine goals in Ireland’s current campaign arrived after the 40th minute.
- Portugal has kept only three clean sheets in their last 14 matches — suggesting vulnerability.
- Four of Portugal’s last five internationals saw at least two first-half goals.
Players to watch and absentees
On Ireland’s side, Troy Parrott is having a stellar club season (13 goals in 14 appearances) and his recent three goals all came before half-time — a sign he starts fast. Ireland will be without Evan Ferguson due to an ankle injury, which is a significant blow.
Portugal brings plenty of experience, and the difference in the reverse fixture was a stoppage-time goal from midfielder Rúben Neves — his first Portugal goal since debuting in 2015. They will have call-ups yet again for João Neves despite muscular issues.
Prediction and Betting Angle
Given the odds, Portugal remains the clear favourite to win and seal qualification here. But Ireland at home are no push-overs: their undefeated record versus Portugal in home qualifiers gives them belief, and with plenty still to play for, they should not lie down.
✅ Prediction:
- Match Result: Portugal win — but expect Ireland to be competitive and possibly frustrate the visitors.
- Alternative Betting Angle: Ireland or Draw (double chance) offers value — particularly given Ireland’s home resilience and the magnitude of the occasion.
- Goals: With Portugal’s record and Ireland’s recent tight games, expect around 2–3 goals in the match — possibly one goal for Ireland, two for Portugal.
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In summary, Portugal has the class and momentum to win and qualify, but Ireland’s home record and desperation could make this far from straightforward. Expect a tough contest — and for those in Tanzania, a compelling fixture to watch (and maybe back).
