For the Italy national football team, this is far more than just another qualifier in Group I of the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifiers. Having missed out on the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, they cannot afford to slip now — a third successive failure to reach the finals would be a seismic blow to their footballing prestige.
Meanwhile, the Moldova national football team sits at the bottom of the table with only one point from six games and no victories in their last nine matches (D2, L7) across all competitions. They’re chasing a historic escape from a third straight winless cycle.
Italy’s five-match winning streak gives them momentum and belief — their longest since the 15-game run from Nov 2020 to July 2021 — and they still harbour hopes of catching Group leaders Norway national football team for automatic qualification.
For Moldova, survival of pride and honour is at stake. A strong performance at home would provide some solace in an otherwise chastening campaign.
📊 Head-to-Head and Trends
- Italy has won all six previous meetings with Moldova, including a comfortable 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier in this cycle.
- Moldova hasn’t recorded any home draws in their last nine: a mix of 5 wins and four losses.
- In seven of Moldova’s last eight matches, the half-time score held until full-time (i.e., no change after the break).
- Italy’s last nine games produced over 2.5 goals in eight of them — indicating a high-scoring tendency.
- Interestingly, 12 of Italy’s previous 16 goals came after half-time, suggesting their stronger phase is in the latter stages.
🎯 Key Players and Absences
Moldova:
- Ștefan Bodișteanu scored his first senior international goal last month and has been on the winning side six times in eight previous goalscoring appearances for club and country.
- New ups include Cătălin Cucoș and Vlad Răileanu
Italy:
- Andrea Cambiaso scored in the reverse fixture and has all three of his international senior goals to date before the hour mark.
- Missing: Nicolò Barella (suspended for one match) — a significant loss in midfield influence.
📌 Prediction: What to Expect
The likely scenario
Given Italy’s superiority and momentum, plus Moldova’s low confidence and poor recent record, the visitors are heavy favourites. Italy is very likely to dominate possession, press high, and gradually increase the pressure. Moldova may adopt a low block, looking for counterattacks, but their chances appear limited.
Scoreline forecast
Italy to win with a −2 handicap (i.e., win by at least two goals) is a logical bet. Based on trends, a final score of Italy 3 – 0 or Italy 4 – 0 looks plausible. Given Italy’s tendency to score late, we may expect the decisive goals after half-time.
Goal expectations
With Italy’s recent games averaging high goals and Moldova likely to concede, we should see over 2.5 goals in the match. It is also expected that the half-time result will mirror the full-time result (Italy leading at halftime, still leading at full-time).
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✅ Final Verdict
Back Italy to win by two or more goals, expect over 2.5 goals in total, and likely a comfortable margin of victory. Moldova may compete hard at home, but the gulf in class, motivation, and form is evident. Italy should deliver a composed performance and move a significant step closer to automatic qualification.
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