On paper, this is the kind of fixture that defines a campaign. In UEFA Group J, Belgium, currently second, hosts North Macedonia, the group’s leaders, in Ghent. A win for Belgium wouldn’t just close the gap — it could see the Red Devils overtake the Balkan side, especially since they have a fixture in hand. The Group J winner qualifies directly for the 2026 World Cup, while the runner-up must navigate the playoffs.
Belgium’s form is imposing: they have won their last two qualifiers 6-0 (versus Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein), underlining their attacking dominance. Meanwhile, North Macedonia enters this match unbeaten in 12 games (excluding friendlies) — a strong run, though with limited success against higher-ranked teams.
The reverse meeting ended 1–1, snapping North Macedonia’s prior three-match losing streak against Belgium.
Tactical Matchups and Key Variables
Belgium’s Firepower vs Missing Stars
Belgium boasts a deep squad and has shown they can absolutely light up weaker opposition with flair. The risk, however, lies in translation: can they break down a compact, motivated North Macedonian defense?
But Belgium won’t be at full strength. Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans are sidelined — two leaders, both on and off the pitch. Their absence could reduce Belgium’s attacking edge and midfield balance.
To fill the void, coach Rudi Garcia has recalled veteran Axel Witsel, whose experience may provide stability.
North Macedonia’s Resilience and Dependence
North Macedonia will approach this with a defensive mindset and hope to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. Their recent record of scoring in away games (six straight) shows they do carry a threat on the break.
They will also rely on Ezgjan Alioski, who has proven to be a talisman — his goals often swing momentum, and in the last H2H, he netted for Macedonia.
Still, their clean sheet record against elite sides is mixed, and Belgium’s attacking depth may test their backline more than many previous opponents.
Prediction and Scoreline
What to Expect
- Goals at both ends: Given Belgium’s attacking shots and the Macedonian tradition of scoring in away games, “Both Teams to Score (BTTS)” is a strong bet.
- Tight until late: North Macedonia defends well and tends to keep matches close; the decisive moment could come after the 70th minute.
- Belgium edges it: Their talent over the course of 90+ minutes should tell, especially with home support.
Final Prediction
I foresee a 2 -1 win for Belgium over North Macedonia. A narrow victory, but enough to flip the standings.
Alternate scenario: A 1–1 draw remains plausible if Macedonia stays disciplined and Belgium struggles to break through without their key forwards.
According to betting projections, the most likely Belgian win is 0–1 (12.8%), followed by 1–2 (7.74%), while a 1–1 draw has about a 13.36% probability.
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Final Thought
This clash is more than just three points — it’s a psychological turning point. Belgium will be under pressure to show they mean business; North Macedonia will have the confidence that they can ride out one of Europe’s more decorated squads. I expect a close, tense affair, with Belgium eventually edging it 2–1.
