79% probability of victory<\/strong>, compared with 13% for a draw and only 8% for a Hull win.<\/p>\n\n\n\nBut the Premier League table tells a much more interesting story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After three matches, Hull City are third with seven points<\/strong>, one place above fourth-placed Chelsea, who have six. Even more remarkably, the newly promoted Tigers are the only team in England’s top four divisions yet to concede a league goal this season<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThis sets up a fascinating battle: Chelsea’s explosive attack against Hull City’s perfect defence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nChelsea’s EPL Form So Far: Goals, Entertainment and One Defeat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Xabi Alonso’s new-look Chelsea have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch in the opening weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Their Premier League record stands at:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Played:<\/strong> 3
Won:<\/strong> 2
Drawn:<\/strong> 0
Lost:<\/strong> 1
Goals scored:<\/strong> 8
Goals conceded:<\/strong> 7
Points:<\/strong> 6
Position:<\/strong> 4th<\/p>\n\n\n\nChelsea opened their campaign with a dramatic 3-2 victory over Fulham<\/strong> before beating Brighton 4-3 at Stamford Bridge<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThose two matches demonstrated exactly what makes Alonso’s Chelsea so exciting \u2014 and potentially vulnerable. The Blues possess tremendous attacking quality, but they have also been giving opponents opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Their perfect league start ended in the London derby when Arsenal defeated Chelsea 2-1 at the Emirates<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nTwo wins from three is still an encouraging beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Xabi Alonso Is Building a Dangerous Chelsea Team<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea’s attacking numbers provide an indication of the potential within this squad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Blues have already scored eight Premier League goals<\/strong>, more than twice Hull’s total of three.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCole Palmer, Jo\u00e3o Pedro and Morgan Rogers<\/strong> have been particularly influential. The trio have combined for 10 Premier League goal contributions through the opening three games.<\/p>\n\n\n\nChelsea also responded impressively after losing to Arsenal. Alonso’s men came from behind to beat Leeds 6-3 in the EFL Cup<\/strong> in midweek.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThat should restore confidence before returning to Premier League action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, there is one glaring weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea Need to Fix Their Defence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea have conceded seven goals in three Premier League matches<\/strong> and are yet to keep a league clean sheet this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThat creates an extraordinary contrast ahead of Saturday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea: 8 scored, 7 conceded<\/strong>
Hull City: 3 scored, 0 conceded<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nChelsea’s matches have been chaotic and goal-filled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hull’s have been controlled and defensively disciplined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Something may have to give at Stamford Bridge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hull City Have Been the EPL’s Biggest Early Surprise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
For a newly promoted club expected to spend the season battling relegation, Hull City could hardly have asked for a better beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Tigers enter Matchday 4 unbeaten<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nTheir record reads:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Played:<\/strong> 3
Won:<\/strong> 2
Drawn:<\/strong> 1
Lost:<\/strong> 0
Goals scored:<\/strong> 3
Goals conceded:<\/strong> 0
Points:<\/strong> 7
Position:<\/strong> 3rd<\/p>\n\n\n\nYes \u2014 Hull are above Chelsea in the Premier League table.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nMore importantly for a newly promoted side, their defensive organisation has been exceptional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three games. Three clean sheets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hull have not needed to score heavily because opponents simply haven’t been able to score against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hull’s Survival Fight Could Be Built on Defence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
For newly promoted clubs, Premier League survival is often about finding an identity quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hull appear to have found theirs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rather than trying to outscore established Premier League teams every week, they have built their strong start around defensive organisation and discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Seven points from their opening nine available represents a huge early boost in their fight to remain in the Premier League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, Chelsea will provide their biggest defensive examination yet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nStopping Palmer, Rogers, Jo\u00e3o Pedro and the rest of Alonso’s attacking options at Stamford Bridge is a very different challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Hull can leave London with another clean sheet, people may have to start viewing their opening form as something more significant than a good start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea Attack vs Hull Defence Is the Key Battle<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
This is the matchup that could define the entire contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea have one of the league’s most productive attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hull have its only perfect defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Tigers will probably be comfortable allowing Chelsea to have possession for extended periods, protecting central areas and waiting for opportunities to counterattack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea therefore need patience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trying to force the opening goal could play directly into Hull’s hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Chelsea score early, the entire tactical picture changes because Hull may be forced to become more adventurous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the longer the match remains 0-0, the more confidence the visitors should gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea vs Hull City Win Probability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
According to the probability graphic provided:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea win: 79%<\/strong>
Draw: 13%<\/strong>
Hull City win: 8%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nChelsea’s home advantage and attacking quality explain why they are such strong favourites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
History also heavily favours the Blues. Chelsea have never lost to Hull in their 10 previous Premier League meetings, winning eight and drawing two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, this version of Hull deserves respect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They are unbeaten, sit third and haven’t conceded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Can Hull City Shock Chelsea?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Absolutely \u2014 but they will need another outstanding defensive performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea’s weakness is obvious. Alonso’s side score plenty, but they also concede plenty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Hull remain compact, frustrate Chelsea and then attack quickly when possession changes, they could create opportunities against the Blues’ defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also pressure on Chelsea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After losing the London derby to Arsenal, dropping more Premier League points at home would allow the early leaders to move further ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hull, meanwhile, can approach Stamford Bridge with considerably less pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Few expect them to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That makes them dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chelsea vs Hull City Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
This is much more difficult to predict than the 79% Chelsea win probability<\/strong> might suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\nHull’s defensive record deserves enormous respect, and their unbeaten start shows that the newly promoted side are ready to compete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, Chelsea possess attacking quality Hull have not yet encountered this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Palmer, Rogers and Jo\u00e3o Pedro should constantly test the visitors, while playing at Stamford Bridge gives Alonso’s team another advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The question is whether Chelsea can remain disciplined enough defensively to avoid giving Hull a route back into the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n